2026 Outlook: Agricultural Policies and Programs to Watch

As 2026 begins, U.S. producers and ag businesses face a dynamic policy landscape marked by major legislative and regulatory changes on the horizon, creating a convergence of complex issues that will shape decisions throughout the year. A delayed farm bill, U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review, tariff unpredictability, developing trade agreements, and high input costs all create uncertainty that impact long-term planning and investment. Below is an overview of the key issue areas to monitor this year.

Farm Bill Negotiations

The farm bill is supposed to be updated every five years. However, Congress enters 2026 without a new farm bill in place after several short-term extensions of the 2018 bill. Negotiations over new legislation are expected to be challenging. Congress did include farm bill priorities in last year’s partisan reconciliation such as updates to some farm bill programs like reference prices and crop insurance policies.

The House Agriculture Committee plans to release bill text and hold markup in January, but partisan and intraparty tensions remain high. The Senate requires 60 votes to pass a new farm bill. Contentious debates on cuts to nutrition programs, updates to crop insurance, hemp regulation, and compliance with California’s Proposition 12, which requires products sold in California from other states to meet certain animal welfare requirements, will make the 60-vote threshold difficult to achieve.

Without clear policy direction that extends beyond the short-term, farmers face challenges securing financing and making long-term planting and investment decisions.

Government Funding

Lawmakers face a January 30 deadline to fund the government and avoid a shutdown. While the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) are fully funded for FY26—shielding core agricultural programs from immediate disruption—continued uncertainty around broader government funding could affect related initiatives and future appropriations.

Farm Assistance

The Trump administration’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program is rolling out now, with payments calculated based on 2025 planted acres and varying by crop. For example, rice producers will receive $132.89 per acre, while cotton producers will receive $117.35 per acre.

To be eligible, producers must be actively engaged in farming, have risk and interest in the eligible planted commodity, and have reported eligible acres for the 2025 crop year by December 19, 2025. Additionally, a person or legal entity with an adjusted gross income that exceeds $900,000 is not eligible to receive FBA payments. Producers who do qualify for FBA assistance can expect the Farm Service Agency to start issuing payments by late February.

These payments are designed to compensate producers for the impacts caused by trade disruptions including the increased cost of fertilizer and other farm inputs. Congressional lawmakers have been quick to indicate that $12 billion is insufficient to make farmers whole and are already considering an additional $10 billion in aid as part of upcoming funding negotiations.

Producers should stay tuned for future funding opportunities and eligibility requirements.

Trade and USMCA Review

Global markets are critical for the financial health of U.S. agriculture, with approximately 20% of U.S. farm products being exported. In 2025, the Trump administration’s tariff and trade policies disrupted global supply chains and eroded long-standing export relationships for U.S. agriculture. Retaliatory tariffs from key partners like China slashed demand for American soybeans and other commodities, forcing producers to seek alternative markets at lower prices. Rising input costs from tariffs on machinery and fertilizers compounded financial strain.

Trade uncertainty has enabled competitors like Brazil and Argentina to capture significant global market share in soybeans and corn. In the past year, Brazilian soybean exports hit record highs as China and other buyers shifted purchases to South America. Both nations have expanded their export volumes and solidified long-term trade relationships, eroding U.S. dominance in key global markets. While the November agreement between the U.S. and China does include a commitment from China to purchase U.S. soybeans, the volumes still lag behind historical numbers. The United States could lose long-held market positions in key export commodities unless trade relations are stabilized.

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement faces its mandatory six-year review in 2026, with a July 1 deadline for countries to confirm continuation. If extended, the agreement will remain in place until 2042; if not, annual reviews will begin, and the pact could expire in 2036. President Trump said he would be fine leaving the agreement and negotiating separately with Mexico and Canada though it is unclear if this is just a negotiating posture on the part of the White House.

Mexico and Canada are the top export markets for U.S. ag exports with Mexico purchasing more U.S. corn than any other country and Canada purchasing more ethanol and U.S. processed food products. Major changes could disrupt supply chains. Ag businesses should stay engaged in trade discussions and anticipate potential shifts in export markets.

Regenerative Agriculture Initiative

USDA and HHS recently announced a $700 million pilot program to advance regenerative practices through EQIP and CSP. The initiative emphasizes reduced tillage, cover crops, manure management, and soil health testing, while implementing the SUSTAINS Act to allow private matching funds.

This program builds on existing NRCS tools but adds new accountability measures, such as whole-farm conservation planning and baseline soil testing. The program does not appear to be new funding but rather a reallocation and reprioritization of existing funding. Interested producers should explore opportunities to participate and align with conservation goals.

Farm Labor Reform

Labor remains a critical issue for agriculture. U.S., farmers grow hundreds of labor-intensive crops, and most of the people harvesting them are foreign-born. According to the National Agricultural Workers Survey, about 70% of crop workers were born outside the United States. The existing H-2A guestworker program, which provides temporary visas for agricultural workers, continues to face chronic problems with complexity and cost.

House Agriculture Chair GT Thompson (R-PA) plans to introduce a farm labor bill in February, with a discussion draft expected in January. Proposals include expanding H-2A visas to year-round industries like dairy and providing legal status for farm workers. However, progress is likely to be slow due to partisan gridlock and reluctance from the administration.

Looking Forward

Predictable and sensible public policies are crucial for the food and agriculture sector and essential for growth, financial stability, profitability, and strategic business planning. 2026 brings both uncertainty and opportunity for agriculture.

“As policies and legislation are proposed and advanced in the coming months, the agriculture community must remain informed and proactive in communicating the industry’s needs and challenges to policymakers,” urges Brian Kuehl, Pinion’s director of government and public affairs.

Pinion’s Government and Public Affairs and Farm Program Services teams serve as trusted policy experts in Washington, D.C. This expertise enables Pinion to effectively advocate for our clients’ interests and ensure they have a voice in pivotal policy discussions. The teams provide informed insights and proactive solutions, helping shape outcomes that are favorable for those we serve.  If you have questions related to your operation, please reach out to a Pinion advisor.