Low-carbon corn and the 45Z tax credit are creating new conversations about how regenerative farming practices could create potential financial value. But before producers make changes to capture a premium, one question matters most: Do the economics work?
The answer depends on far more than carbon scores.
We asked three Pinion advisors — in the areas of biofuels, sustainability, and land — to provide us with their professional takes on potential impacts around this: Data collection, verification requirements, supply-chain participation, and farm-level profitability will all play a role in determining whether low-CI corn creates meaningful value for an operation.
For producers considering whether low-carbon intensity corn fits their operation, the opportunity will likely come down to three questions: Who captures the value, what records are required, and can the farm prove what happened at the field level? So, we explored what that might entail and which producers could benefit.
The opportunity starts with renewable fuels
The 45Z credit is focused on clean transportation fuel produced domestically and sold within the program window. For many grain producers, the most immediate connection is ethanol. That distinction matters because low-carbon intensity, or low-CI, corn does not automatically carry a premium in every market or for every use.
As Donna Funk, lead biofuels advisor at Pinion, explained, “Much of today’s discussion is tied specifically to renewable fuels production. In the current program structure, the ethanol producer is the party positioned to claim the credit first. Any value that flows back to the farmer will depend on how that credit is calculated, monetized, and shared through the supply chain.”
In other words, producers are not claiming the 45Z credit directly. They are participating in a supply chain where the value may be reflected through premiums, contracts, or other payment structures.
“It’s not low-CI corn for any purpose that I sell my corn into,” Funk said. “The here and now is, if your low-CI corn is not used to produce renewable fuels, there’s not necessarily a monetary market for that today under this program.”
Field-level data will drive the conversation
USDA’s Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator measures crop-specific carbon intensity at the field level and reflects the impact of practices such as no-till, reduced tillage, cover crops, and nutrient management.
That means producers may need to track and maintain field-specific records such as:
- Yield by field or management unit
- Synthetic nitrogen applied
- Cover crop use, timing, varieties, and success
- Tillage systems used or changed
- Nitrogen inhibitors
- Manure applications
- Acres, crop type, and location
Digital records will be especially important. Producers who want to participate should begin thinking about whether their current systems can capture the right information, organize it by field, and support verification later.
“Digital data is going to be best in this world,” Quint Shambaugh, land and conservation services advisor at Pinion said. “Producers are going to have to know yield by field, synthetic nitrogen applied, cover crops implemented, tillage systems used, nitrogen inhibitors, and manure applications — and they’re going to have to keep those records field specific.”
The economics will be operation specific
Low-CI corn will not pencil out the same way for every farm. Practice changes such as reduced tillage, no-till, cover crops, or nitrogen management may be a natural fit for some operations and a costly change for others.
“With anything in agriculture, it’s going to be extremely operation specific,” Shambaugh said. “It’s going to take some real work at the farm level to understand if low-CI corn fits their program.”
The calculation is not only about whether a practice lowers a carbon intensity score. Producers also need to consider costs associated with equipment, labor, agronomic risk, precision agriculture tools, data management, and potential verification fees.
Regional differences also matter. Yield, soil type, climate, and current management practices can all influence the final score. Two producers may implement similar practices and land in different economic positions simply because their fields perform differently.
Holly Salisbury, sustainability advisor at Pinion, noted, “The longer-term significance could extend beyond one credit if the market finds a reliable way to connect sustainability practices with farm-level revenue.”
The biggest barrier is still the economics. Producers may be interested in regenerative or low-carbon practices, but those practices must make business sense.
“If the economics aren’t there, it’s not going to work. If the money doesn’t work, this doesn’t work,” Shambaugh said.
Verification may be the hidden hurdle
Participating in low-CI markets will likely require more than good records. It will require credible verification throughout the supply chain.
“Voluntary participation comes with a pretty high level of scrutiny and verification,” Funk said. “It’s not just a handshake, take-me-at-my-word program. There’s going to be a cost associated with this at every level.”
Verification begins at the field level but continues throughout the supply chain. Carbon intensity information may need to follow grain from the farm through aggregation, handling, and ultimately to the ethanol plant. Those requirements could affect how premiums are structured and when producers are paid.
“We’re still trying to figure out how that chain of custody and mass balance is going to work,” Salisbury said. “The ethanol plant is going to get the tax credit once a year, but the farmer doesn’t really want to wait to get paid until a year later.”
Producer checklist: What to do now
Even as guidance continues to evolve, producers can begin preparing now. Before chasing a low-CI premium, consider these steps:
- Start with your current records. Pull together field-level yield history, fertilizer records, manure applications, nitrogen inhibitor use, tillage practices, and cover crop details, including acres, species, planting dates, and termination dates.
- Identify data gaps. Determine which records are field-specific and which are only tracked at the whole-farm level. Note where information is handwritten, incomplete, or stored across multiple systems.
- Evaluate the economics before changing practices. Consider implementation costs, yield impacts, and whether expected premiums offset added risk.
- Talk to buyers early. Ask whether they plan to participate, what documentation may be required, and how premiums and payments will be handled.
- Understand verification requirements. Ask who will verify farming practices and field-level data, whether the verifier must be third-party or accredited and what documentation must be available for review.
- Prepare for chain-of-custody expectations. Ask how low-CI grain will be identified and tracked after it leaves the farm, including whether it will be segregated, documented through mass balance, or handled under another tracking method.
- Build a plan for 2026 and beyond. Focus on fields and practices that already fit your agronomic and financial goals, then revisit the economics as markets and guidance evolve.
The premium is only part of the equation
Low-CI corn and the 45Z credit may represent one of the most tangible opportunities to connect regenerative agriculture practices with financial return. But the farms most likely to benefit will be those that understand their numbers, maintain strong field-level records, and evaluate whether the potential premium justifies the cost and complexity of participation.
Because guidance and market structures continue to evolve, producers should confirm current requirements before making major operational decisions.
If you are evaluating low-CI opportunities, start with your field-level data, current management practices, and the economics behind any potential premium. Pinion advisors can help producers assess recordkeeping readiness, model financial impacts, and prepare for verification requirements.
