Please note: The following information is current as of March 13, 2025, at 10:45 a.m. CT.  Pinion will continue to monitor changes and create updates.

Summary of Recent U.S. Tariff Activity

Over the last month President Trump has announced new tariffs, suspended those tariffs, announced tariffs again, suspended tariffs again, and announced tariff increases on critical trading partners, only to rescind those increases. The past week alone has seen a whirlwind of activity on the trade front and this week steel and aluminum tariffs take effect.

A Week in Review: Canada-United States-Mexico-China Trade Disputes

  • On March 4, following a monthlong pause for negotiations, President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. Coming just six years after the completion of the U.S.-Canada-Mexico agreement, these actions raise concerns about a potential trade war between the U.S. and its neighbors. Combined with the 20% tariffs that President Trump has placed on imports from China and retaliatory tariffs levied on U.S. exports by Canada, Mexico, and China, these trade disputes could significantly impact U.S. agriculture.
  • On March 6, Trump announced a further delay until April 2 on tariffs on many Canadian and Mexican imports that fall under an existing trade deal between the North American countries. Canadian potash will face a 10% tariff, down from 25% previously. Trump promised the “predominant” tariffs are still to come.
  • On March 11, Trump ordered his administration to raise tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports by an additional 25%, bringing the total duties to 50%, only to reverse course the following day. Canada is the top supplier of foreign steel to the United States.

“It is imperative we consider the long-term effects of these trade policies, which could lead to decreased market access and potentially permanent loss of market share to global competitors,” said Brian Kuehl, Pinion’s Director of Government and Public Affairs.

“This ongoing uncertainty not only jeopardizes our farmers’ livelihoods but also the stability of food prices and supply chains both domestically and globally.”

What’s at Stake for Food Production, Globally

This stake of an escalating trade war is immense as global markets are critical for the financial health of U.S. agriculture. 

  • U.S. agricultural exports equaled about $176 billion in 2024.
  • 20% of U.S. farm products are sold to foreign markets with Canada, Mexico, and China being the top three markets for U.S. agricultural exports.
  • Retaliatory tariffs pose a significant threat to soybeans, the leading farm export by value in the U.S., along with exports of corn, wheat, and meat.

Retaliation Tariffs from Canada, Mexico, China, and the EU

In response to President Trump’s tariffs earlier this week, Canada, Mexico, and China announced plans to impose tariffs on the U.S.

  • Canada is moving ahead with plans to impose 25% tariffs on $107 billion of American goods, including orange juice, peanut butter, wine, and coffee which will take effect immediately. Several Canadian provinces have also announced their own responses, such as removing U.S. alcohol from stores.
    • Canada is the top export market for U.S. ethanol and processed foods.
  • China issued their own set of retaliatory measures including 10% tariffs on U.S. agricultural machinery, soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products, and 15% tariffs on chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton.
    • In 2024, China imported $24.7 billion in farm products from the U.S., or 14% of its $176 billion in total farm exports.
    • China is the largest export destination for U.S. soybeans, purchasing over $15 billion in 2023.
  • Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said that she would announce retaliatory tariffs on American imports into Mexico, as well as non-tariff measures, on March 9.
    • Mexico was the top export market for U.S. corn, wheat, and pork in 2024.
  • The European Union has responded to the steel and aluminum tariffs by announcing retaliatory tariffs on meat, poultry, fruit and vegetables, alcoholic beverages, and other American products like Harley-Davidson motorcycles and jeans.

State Level Impacts

Individual states depend on trade for the health of their agriculture economies.

Some states will feel the impact of tariffs more than others.

  • Texas accounts for 10% of all goods exported to Canada: Texas exported more than $36 billion in goods to Canada in 2024, including agricultural products like fruits and other organic materials. Mexico is also Texas’ largest market for agricultural products.
  • Michigan, Illinois and Ohio are among the next highest exporters to Canada.
  • California exports millions of dollars in fruits and agricultural products to Canada.
  • California, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota are also major exporters of agricultural products to Mexico. Hit with the 25 percent tariffs from Canada, industries in these states are likely to see significant changes in business revenues, with consumer prices also at risk of increasing if the trade war between the two countries escalates.

A Look at U.S. Dependence on Inputs

The significance of potash and pork: U.S. agriculture also depends on inputs from other countries. GOP lawmakers in farm states have asked the White House to exempt Canadian potash and other key farm inputs from the tariffs.

  • Canada supplies nearly 90% of U.S. potash and U.S. pork producers rely on importing baby pigs from Canada.
  • Many food processors use imported aluminum in packaging for products like canned foods. Medium- to large-size farm equipment can contain up to 90% steel.

Skepticism around Domestic Product Marketing

When announcing the new tariffs President Trump told U.S. farmers to be ready to market their products domestically. This approach has been met with skepticism regarding its feasibility as U.S. producers depend upon accessing international markets for their financial stability.

A Look Ahead: More Complexities for Ag Producers

More to come for ag impacts:  President Trump is not done with his tariff push. The president’s tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum took effect on March 12, and Trump has announced his intention to implement reciprocal tariffs and tariffs on imports of agricultural goods starting April 2- the same date that the newly delayed Canada and Mexico are set to go into effect.

Trump also threatened to enact a 250% tariff on Canadian dairy and a “high” tariff on Canadian lumber and a 200% tariff on alcohol from France and other European nations. These tariffs, if implemented, will likely result in renewed retaliation from trading partners across the globe.

Potential emergency fund depletion for farmers:  During the first Trump administration, the USDA allocated $28 billion from the emergency Commodity Credit Corporation to support farmers. However, these funds are now largely depleted with USDA’s available CCC spending authority reduced to $4 billion. Congress will need to pass additional spending authority to replenish this fund if President Trump is to implement another market facilitation payment program for farmers.

Takeaways and actions needed: The overall uncertainty paints a complex picture of the economic landscape U.S. agricultural producers now face. The short-term impacts of a trade war on American agricultural producers and the broader ag industry include immediate price volatility and decreased market access. Persistent trade conflicts can lead to a loss of market share as global buyers turn to more reliable suppliers, potentially causing lasting harm to the U.S. agricultural sector.

“Unpredictability severely impacts the ability to plan, invest, and grow. Our producers need stable and fair-trade agreements to thrive in a global market,” says Kuehl.

“Producers should be proactive in understanding the specifics of tariff effects and engage with policy makers. Producers must communicate the real-world impacts of these tariffs on their livelihoods. It’s essential to elevate your voice.”

Pinion’s government and public affairs team will keep an eye on updates and information surrounding impacts for producers, input suppliers, processors, packagers, distributors, manufacturers, equipment dealerships, landowners, and lenders – to provide information for the U.S. supply chain from policy to plate.

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Reach out to a Pinion advisor if you would like to discuss your situation and how to elevate your voice around what matters most to you.